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fy_nance

Research · paper versus realizable

Honest cuts: why your tracker overcounts

Your tracker shows one big number and calls it your inventory value. It is not money. It is the price before every cut that stands between you and your bank account, and those cuts are the whole story.

$48,210PAPER-$3,400MARKETPLACE FEES-$6,200CASH-OUT HAIRCUT-$2,155LIQUIDITY DISCOUNT$36,455REALIZABLE

The headline number is wallet credit, not cash

Steam Market prices are denominated in a currency you cannot withdraw. That inflates them: people pay more in locked wallet funds than they would in real dollars. So the very feed most trackers quote is already high, before any fee. Treating it as your net worth is like marking a gift card to its face value and calling it savings.

Three cuts, every time you move size

To turn skins into money you pay, in order: the marketplace fee, the third-party haircut to escape wallet lock, and a liquidity discount on anything that does not clear in a day. A liquid Redline barely notices. A specialized knife or a high-tier pattern can give back twenty to thirty percent, because the buyer pool is thin and patient. The cut is not a fixed percentage; it is a function of the item, the venue, and how fast you need out.

Why overcounting is expensive, not just wrong

A number that is twenty percent too high makes you hold too long, size too big, and plan around money that is not there. The October 2025 crash was the brutal version: paper value that never existed in cash evaporated, and the people hit hardest were the ones who trusted the headline. A book that shows the realizable figure all year would have told them what they actually had to lose.

The fix is not optimism, it is arithmetic

fy_nance does not guess a haircut. It computes the realizable value per item and per venue, after fees, with the liquidity and float adjustments itemized, and shows the paper number right beside it so you can see exactly what the market would take. The valuation write-up walks through the method. The short version: if a number cannot show its work, it does not ship.

See your real number, not the headline.